Some Thoughts Regarding Coronavirus

I am not a doctor. Nor am I a medical professional of any kind. So, I can’t really give you a breakdown of any medically detailed information regarding the Coronavirus. What I can do, though, is provide you with some brief information based on a little bit of training that I have had.

One of my majors was National Security and as part of that major I have had some training in threat assessment. I want to make it clear that I do not consider myself an expert in this area and am not in any way claiming to be one so take what I say with a grain of salt. If you find value in what I say, good. If not, then that is fine too. So, having said that, based on my own personal assessment of this situation I have come to this conclusion:  

If you are under 60 and have no underlying or chronic health issues then Covid-19 poses no real threat to your health.

However

There is a real possibility of an infection rate high enough, because of its R0, to overwhelm the hospitals in this country because they already operate at close to capacity. IF this happens it could have serious societal consequences.

HOWEVER

The panic and knee jerk reactions are actually what is the biggest threat. Especially in the financial sector, and this particular issue could be exacerbated once the stores start running low on items. When the stores get low on things that could trigger a domino effect of panic that causes a ripple into the markets.

I’m being blunt about the possibility of items running out for a reason. The Chinese have not been in production of anything since around early January and what was being shipped over at that point is stopped either in their ports waiting to go out or being quarantined in ours. People don’t realize just how much China dominates our entire supply chain and that chain is currently broken. It’s not a question of if some items run out, but when.

That said I’m not changing anything about the way I live other than increasing vigilance on decontamination when I get back home from anywhere. Not necessarily because of the virus, but because there’s more nasty people with bad hygiene out panic buying.

Just my $.02, I could write a bit more and go into greater detail on a few things, but in my mind these are the important points at a macro level. Drop a comment if you’d like more detail.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *